A decade after the UK entered into a hurried public vote that split the nation and caused turmoil, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two prominent writers from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly tense and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the political architecture of our islands remains extremely volatile."
New Title Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The duo have studied the governmental, economic and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the topic with a tour of lectures that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everybody, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose results have remained undefined because then you end up with an extremely divided society where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the those successful are uncertain quite what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say this point is imminent, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, leaving it unclear if and when there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unity has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the actual thinking which could extend past that to make it possible has largely not occurred. Much has occurred in scholarly circles but hardly any government figures or advocates seek to involve themselves even with the fundamentals. As an example, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, no writer supports unification or the existing arrangement. They authors two articles that aim for objectivity in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument against, assembling economic and social figures, previous instances and structural examples.
Debates cover flags and symbols, taxes, health services, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The aim is to enlighten and encourage conversation.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there hasn't quite been a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an acknowledgement of the concept that there might be valid points on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they support unity but refuse paying higher taxes or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland must work out what the plan from nationalist groups is aside from just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist thinks a national vote in his generation is likely and that it could happen unexpectedly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a bad or a negligent government minister who states: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid points, he said. "One side will win here and somebody will ultimately not succeed but each side has possesses valuable insights to learn from the opposing positions."
Appeal for Broader Dialogue
Westminster should engage with the dialogue, said the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish question."
